Is the heat here to stay?

By Tasha Kates

Published: June 15, 2008

Prepare to turn the air conditioner on full blast again.

Last week’s scorching heat may be an indicator that the Charlottesville area will have a hotter summer this year, weather experts say.

“Whenever Charlottesville sees a large number of especially hot days by the first half of June, there’s a good chance the summer will turn out to be hotter than average,” said Jerry Stenger, research coordinator with the University of Virginia’s Office of Climatology. “It’s not a guarantee, but it’s certainly the way to bet.”

However, seasonal forecasts are difficult to make, said Michael Halpert, deputy director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center.

“Just because we’ve had a few hot days in June doesn’t mean record-breaking heat through the rest of the summer,” Halpert said. “It doesn’t mean it won’t be hot, but there is no signal that it could be hot.”

High heat this early into the season doesn’t happen often in the Charlottesville area. Of the last 115 years, Stenger said, only six have seen daily high temperatures of 97 degrees or more by June 10, as measured at UVa’s McCormick Observatory.

“One of the big problems with this early hot spell is that folks have not had the chance to acclimate somewhat to the summer weather,” Stenger said. “This can be rough on the body, especially for the elderly and the very young.”

Between June 8 to Wednesday, seven Virginians died after preexisting health conditions were worsened by extreme heat. At least one adult from Central Virginia died of heat-related causes, according to the state’s Department of Health.

To help combat the heat locally, Charlottesville turned on the air conditioning and provided water at two recreation centers it dubbed cooling centers.

Halpert said heat waves occur when a persistent jet stream pattern shifts north, bringing hotter air with it.

“A lot of times we get air that moves down the mountain,” he said. “The air compresses as it moves down and heats up as well.”

The recent hot weather can’t be attributed to any particular weather force, said Jared Klein, a meteorologist intern with the National Weather Service in the Baltimore and D.C. area.

“We’re in a weakening La Niña,” said Klein, referencing the unusually cold Pacific Ocean temperatures at the equator, “but that can’t contribute to a single heat wave.”

Help is being made available for people who require air conditioning. Virginia residents can apply for cooling assistance through the state’s Department of Social Services. The funds can go toward the purchase, repair or cost to run an air conditioner. The program is meant to reduce the number of medical emergencies arising from extreme heat.

Eligible households must have one person vulnerable to heat and meet income and citizenship criteria. Applications can be submitted now through Aug. 15. To apply, visit http://www.dss.virginia.gov/benefit/ea/cooling. Charlottesville residents can call 970-3400 for more information; Albemarle residents can call 972-4010.