Kaine maintains popularity despite budget, economic woes

Media General News Service
Published: October 4, 2008

Call him Teflon Tim.

Virginia faces a $3 billion budget shortfall, has no fix for its transportation gridlock and is being run by an unabashed supporter of the Democratic presidential candidate in a state that has backed Republicans for president since 1964.

A Mason-Dixon poll, conducted for The Daily Progress and other news organizations and released Saturday, shows that nearly three years into his term, a majority of residents in the state give Kaine a favorable job rating.

Statewide, 54 percent rated Kaine’s performance as “excellent” or “good” according to the statewide telephone poll of 625 registered voters conducted between Monday and Wednesday by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. of Washington.

Thirty percent of respondents gave Kaine a “fair” rating, while 11 percent said he has done a poor job and 5 percent were undecided.

“He [Kaine] was elected with 51 or 52 percent of the vote, so he’s maintained his base of support, but he hasn’t really built much upon it,” said J. Bradford Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon.

By comparison, Kaine’s positive rating was 55 percent in July 2006, roughly 18 months after taking office. Back then, 26 percent gave Kaine a “fair” rating, 8 percent rated him “poor” and 11 percent were undecided.

“It’s not surprising,” said Kaine press secretary Gordon Hickey, when told that Kaine has retained his approval rating despite the challenges facing the state amid a national economic slowdown. “He’s doing a good job.”

In the latest poll’s Shenan-doah/Piedmont region, which includes the Charlottesville area, 48 percent of respondents gave Kaine either an “excellent” or “good” rating, while 34 percent said “fair,” 13 percent said “poor” and 5 percent were undecided.

Despite Kaine’s favorability during challenging times, he is no Mark R. Warner. Warner, the Democratic U.S. Senate candidate who preceded Kaine as governor, had a 74 percent positive job rating in July 2005, five months before he left office.

Warner’s negative rating, which was 12 percent when he first became governor, was 4 percent during his last year.

Kaine’s rating more closely resembles that of former Gov. Jim Gilmore, Warner’s Republican opponent for the U.S. Senate. Gilmore had a 57 percent positive rating in September 2001, but a 15 percent “poor” rating.

The pollster said Kaine’s final numbers will depend greatly on how the economy shapes up before he leaves office.

Higher approval ratings keep the door open for future elected offices; lower numbers can squelch further political ambition. Like many things in politics these days, Coker said it’s all about the economy.

“When the economy is good, if you can’t get an approval popularity rating of 60, you’re not considered very popular,” said Coker. “But when times are lean, if you can pull a 45 you’re considered to be in pretty good shape.”