Va. presidential race a toss-up for a change

By The Daily Progress Staff

Published: July 10, 2008

For the first time in 32 years, Virginia is considered a toss-up state in the presidential contest, this one pitting Republican John McCain against Democrat Barack Obama.

Virginia’s status as a swing state was highlighted in an analysis Thursday by Larry J. Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.

“Right now, it’s a pure toss-up. Both sides privately admit that,” Sabato said. “It’s 50-50. It could go either way.”

Sabato’s view about the Old Dominion was part of a 50-state look at McCain and Obama’s likely electoral victories. Overall, Sabato concluded that Obama has 200 safe electoral votes, while McCain has 174.

Virginia has not gone to a Democratic presidential candidate since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, though it has seen several close races. In 1976, for example, Republican Gerald Ford beat Jimmy Carter by 1 percentage point.

Which way Virginia will tilt Nov. 4 is anyone’s guess, Sabato said. It will largely depend on the state of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as the nation’s economy, he said.

A likely factor in Virginia, Sabato added, will be black voter turnout. Obama’s campaign has been working to register and turn out many black voters in traditionally Republican-leaning corners of Virginia, such as Southside. Obama’s strategy, he said, aims to shave off McCain’s edge in rural Virginia, while also posting a sizable lead in Northern Virginia.

While Sabato is not sure if Obama or McCain will carry Virginia, he is certain of one winner — TV stations.

Both campaigns are expected to spend millions on television ads in Virginia in the months leading up to Election Day.

Plus, Sabato said, Virginia can expect to see a greater number of visits from the two candidates, as well as on-the-ground activity from campaign staffers and activists.

In addition to Virginia, Sabato’s other battleground states were Colorado, Michigan, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.