2008 UVa season analysis

By Jerry Ratcliffe

Published: August 28, 2008

Coming off last year’s surprising nine-win season, Gator Bowl appearance and an NCAA record of five wins by two points or fewer, University of Virginia football fans wonder what Coach Al Groh will do for an encore.

While the team’s schedule is tougher than last season’s, there are also only three opponents against whom Virginia will be listed as a definite underdog:

l powerhouse Southern California in the home opener Saturday;

l Clemson, preseason favorite of the Atlantic Division of the Atlantic Coast Conference; and

l perennial nemesis Virginia Tech, whom UVa will face in Blacksburg.

On paper, the Cavaliers compare favorably to the remaining nine opponents.

Wahoo reservations

What keeps Groh up at night are four lingering questions about this football team, spanning the operation from offense to defense to the kicking game.

Groh is a firm believer that the kicking game is as important as any part of a team. Breaking in a new punter (true freshman Jimmy Howell) and a new placement man, former All-ACC soccer star Yannick Reyering (a senior), could offer a challenge, particularly in the early going. Neither will have played a down of college football until the opener against the USC Trojans.

If that were the only part of the team that made Groh sweat, it would be more bearable. However, there’s the fact that the Wahoos will be breaking in a new starting quarterback, which usually provides many Pepto-Bismol moments.

Sophomore Peter Lalich, who goes by the nickname of “Pistol Pete,” should show early whether he is worthy of that moniker. While he gained exposure to the college game as a highly recruited true freshman last season, there’s no guarantee that Groh won’t have Lalich on a short leash. Just as a year ago,

the head coach has publicly stated that he is willing to go with a two-quarterback system until the matter sorts itself out. It is antici pated that Groh will go with whoever has the hot hand.

Then there are the offensive and defensive lines, providing headaches Nos. 3 and 4.

The old coaches will tell you that the game is controlled on the line of scrimmage, which so happens to be the greenest spot on Planet Wahoo. Counting the tight end, six of the nine starters on the two lines are gone via graduation or other matters.

Virginia will start with an entirely new defensive line in Groh’s 3-4 alignment, and fresh faces at both guards and center spots on offense.

Only the bookend tackles — Eugene Monroe and Will Barker — are back, along with John Phillips, the next in a line of quality Cavalier tight ends. While Phillips wasn’t a starter, the senior has garnered lots of playing time the past three seasons.

Unlocking ’08

Forget Southern Cal.

An unthinkable upset win would be an unexpected bonanza.

The real key to this season will be the next three games: a home date against Division I-AA semifinalist Richmond, then two crucial road games at Connecticut and at Duke.

Virginia must win at least two of those three contests, then depend on its home field advantage for a three-game homestand against Maryland, East Carolina and North Carolina. Should the Cavaliers fare well through that stretch they should have a shot at making their sixth bowl game during the Groh era.

Groh believes this will be an evolving team, which should play better as the season progresses. Winning close games, as last year (an NCAA record of five wins by two or fewer points), will likely depend on the new kickers and a quarterback who can make big plays in the clutch, especially on the road.

Strength in numbers

Groh has built this team around its two most proven producers offensively: tailbacks Cedric Peerman (fifth-year senior) and Mikell Simpson (sophomore), who together put up impressive numbers last year even though both only started for half a season.

Still, Peerman led the ACC in rushing midway through the campaign until a foot injury ended his season at Middle Tennessee State, and Simpson rushed for more than 500 yards and ranked ninth nationally in receptions by a running back even though most of those numbers came in only five games.

Whomever the quarterback might be, he will have plenty of targets. This is the deepest corps of receivers during the Groh regime, led by Kevin Ogletree, who missed last season with a knee injury. Don’t discount Phillips either. He’s a playmaking tight end and a big target.

Defensively, the numbers come from linebackers who have been around the block a few times: Clint Sintim on the outside, Jon Copper and Antonio Appleby on the inside. Together, the trio of hitters has stacked up a lot of tackles and quarterback sacks over the years, and that won’t hurt.

Groh-ing the program

This is Groh’s eighth year as Virginia’s head coach, which ties him for the third-longest tenure of anyone in the Cavaliers’ gridiron history. Frank Murray coached nine years, George Welsh 19 seasons. During that span, Groh has won ACC Coach of the Year honors twice and beaten every team in the ACC (at least once) except Boston College (the two teams have only met once), and taken the Cavaliers to five bowls (3-2).

Yet, Wahoo Nation appears divided in its allegiance to the veteran coach and UVa alumnus. Some believe Groh, given more time and support, will take the program ever higher. Others believe the program is stuck at a certain level and that its current master can’t raise the profile.

Last year’s second-place finish in the ACC Coastal Division, a 9-4 record and Gator Bowl appearance was somewhat unexpected. Some classified it as luck, but Groh should be given credit for early detection of a team that would have to win close, low-scoring games to survive and adjusting his coaching style (much like NFL games are won and lost) to take advantage of that characteristic.

Suffering a major loss in personnel (14 starters with a combined 378 career starts are gone), the Cavs are predicted to finish next-to-last in the division and most preseason magazines predict Virginia to finish between the 60th and 80th out of a total 119 Division I-A teams.

Groh answered critics last year when he was placed on a list of coaches on the “hot seat,” so that should have gained him some favor. At least for the last quarter century no one has been dismissed the season after winning ACC Coach of the Year.

There’s a strong belief that if Virginia can weather this storm the program could be set for some time because Groh’s redshirting policy should have a significant effect on future teams, and possibly this one.

However, a losing campaign this year would have the wolves howling for Groh’s head.

The Trojan horse(s)

Having Southern California’s football program coming to Charlottesville to open the season is a major scheduling coup.

The Trojans are making a rare trip to the East Coast, only the fifth in the past 20 years (others were at Florida State, or Penn State in the Kickoff Classic at the Meadowlands, and to FedEx Field in Landover, Md., vs. Virginia Tech in the 2004 Black Coaches Association Classic). Virginia will return the game to Los Angeles in 2010, a good recruiting lure for the Cavaliers.

How big is having USC come to Scott Stadium?

Consider that Coach Pete Carroll’s team, ranked third by the Associated Press and second in USA Today’s poll, is the highest ranked team to visit Charlottesville since 1999 when Bobby Bowden’s No. 1-ranked Florida State squad dropped by.

Speaking of Bowden’s Seminoles, many college football observers believe Carroll’s Trojans are this decade’s version of Bowden’s NCAA-declared “dynasty” of the ’90s, although as one veteran coach noted, “USC plays a tougher schedule than FSU did.”

Consider that Southern California has been to a record six consecutive Bowl Championship Series bowls (including national championships in 2003 and 2004) and has compiled six straight 11-win seasons, both NCAA records. The Trojans have also won a Pac-10 record six conference crowns in a row and have strung together six straight AP top four finishes.